France 2022: How to predict an election | The Economist

For as long as elections have taken place someone has tried to predict what might happen. From polls to prediction models, uncertainty is always inevitable. What’s the best way to do it?

00:00 - What’s the best way to predict elections?
00:48 - How were elections predicted in the past?
02:36 - How do modern day polls work?
04:32 - Why polls miss the mark
07:14 - How does statistical modelling work?
08:30 - Our French election model

See the data behind The Economist's French election model: https://github.com/TheEconomist/2022-france-election-model

Find out french election coverage here: https://econ.st/3D70EDW

Will Emmanuel Macron win a second term? https://econ.st/36M2DBK

“Covid, heating bills, crime—that’s what people will be voting on”—our French-election series begins. Listen here: https://econ.st/36Jzozx

How we forecast the French election: https://econ.st/356SLSq

The Economist’s election modelling should cheer Emmanuel Macron: https://econ.st/3iwgeQ7

America’s battle over election laws: https://econ.st/3JIi4JG

In France’s election young people are all over the map: https://econ.st/3IG9euy